BLS Said To Be Using New Data Adjustment Model
Outside The (Cardboard) Box is disseminating a startling rumor that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed a new adjustment model to be applied to their monthly Employment Data report that will show a radically improved national jobs picture. Dubbed the ‘Twofer’, the model is intended to reflect better the changing nature of work in the U.S.
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An individual speaking on condition of anonymity said, “As we’ve analyzed the changes to the national workforce during the downturn, the Birth/Death model has been useful in giving the impression that the glass is half full. And that’s not easy. No Sir-ee! The glass is just about empty. What’s worse, everyone is on to our birth/death hijinks. They’re watching that number like hawks! Something new was needed.”
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And ‘something new’ could be the rumored Twofer Model. “BLS has pushed as many people into the ‘discouraged’ category as they could get away with. And anyone who is unemployed and over 50 is being counted as having ‘left the workforce’. Essentially they’ve retired whether they know it or not. And the message from above was that ‘it still isn’t right. Fix it.’ So it was back to the drawing board.”
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BLS noticed that over the last 24 months a meaningful percentage of workers have taken multiple part-time jobs to replace a single full-time job that was lost. If the distinction between full time and part time employment was ignored, every time an individual took two part time jobs to replace one lost full time position, BLS would realize a net gain of 1 in employment.
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In fact, the data showed that many workers had numerous, low hour positions. “As the data was drilled, it became apparent that people were taking all sorts of work. A few hours here, ten hours there, a day spent working somewhere else. All of a sudden, instead of one lost job, we were showing a net gain of four or five jobs in a surprising percentage of cases.”
Thus the Twofer Model was born. ”Twofer” derives from the average minimum net gain of two jobs for each full time job lost. Applying the Twofer Model, BLS could now count each part time and/or occasional position as equal to a full time position.
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“Previously, we counted a Squeegee Guy as an Independent Contractor. This would benefit the Birth/Death model with respect to Small Business creation but would generate only one job. But now, looking at the data with fresh eyes, we count each vehicle as a separate position. The negative impact to small business creation has been negligible, but the job creation has been nothing short of astounding! The upcoming data sets should validate Administration policies as the highest employment rate in the history of the Universe emerges.”
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Street analysts are scrambling to incorporate the new model into their projections. “Unbelievable!” said one. “I wouldn’t have thought it but the data doesn’t lie. We’ve gained over 200 million jobs during this recession. Hot damn! I’ve got to get some ‘Outperforms’ on Consumer Discretionary posted today…”
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“Is this right?” pondered another. “Plugging-in the Twofer, I’m forecasting near-term employment at 287%, and then rising to 600% over the next four quarters. That seems a tad high. And the work week is at 169 hours? Wow. That’s impressive! Productivity is going thru the roof. We may have to rejigger our inflation expectations somewhat though.”
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A tad high or not, this will come as welcome news to families struggling to make ends meet. Not so long ago, there were six workers competing for every job opening in the U.S., an all-time high. This was a terrible state of affairs for U.S. consumers trapped between heavy debts and shrinking employment. Now, each worker has 6 jobs; unless they’ve ‘retired’; or are ‘discouraged’; or are climate-change skeptics; or are hermits; or something equally dismissible. As BLS continues to emit data that shows our economy performing at a multiple of full employment, conditions can’t help but improve.
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Your Outside The (Cardboard) Box team will continue to flog this and other rumors of our own creation. Check back often for the latest breaking stories.
OTCB: We make it up, you decide.
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